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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Huge interplate earthquakes in Tokachi-oki

十勝沖のプレート間巨大地震

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 8–8.6

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years9.5%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years37%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

This is a model of a broad plate boundary where one plate descends beneath another. Different sections may rupture in different combinations. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 8–8.6. Its source elements span depths of 0–61.68 km below the surface. It considers 34 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 9.5%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow0 kmMid-range30.8 kmDeep61.7 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 8–8.6

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years9.5%Within 50 years37%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
80.3 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
16.3 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Obihiro City
  2. Tomakomai City
  3. Noboribetsu City
  4. Namporo Town
  5. Yuni Town
  6. Naganuma Town
  7. Kuriyama Town
  8. Shiraoi Town
  9. Atsuma Town
  10. Hidaka, Hidaka Town
  11. Niikappu Town
  12. Urakawa Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Samani Town
  2. Erimo Town
  3. Otofuke Town
  4. Shimizu Town
  5. Memuro Town
  6. Nakasatsunai Village
  7. Sarabetsu Village
  8. Taiki Town
  9. Hiroo Town
  10. Makubetsu Town
  11. Urahoro Town
  12. Kushiro, Kushiro City
  13. Nemuro City
  14. Minamifurano Town
  15. Abira Town
  16. Mukawa Town
  17. Biratori Town
  18. Shinhidaka Town
  19. Shihoro Town
  20. Shikaoi Town
  21. Ikeda Town
  22. Toyokoro Town
  23. Hombetsu Town
  24. Kushiro Town
  25. Akkeshi Town
  26. Hamanaka Town
  27. Shibecha Town
  28. Tsurui Village
  29. Shiranuka Town
  30. Betsukai Town
  31. Shibetsu Town
  32. Mutsu City
  33. Higashidori Village
  34. Hakodate City
  35. Furano City
  36. Eniwa City
  37. Kitahiroshima City
  38. Nakafurano Town
  39. Bihoro Town
  40. Shari Town
  41. Kiyosato Town
  42. Koshimizu Town
  43. Ozora Town
  44. Ashoro Town
  45. Rikubetsu Town
  46. Teshikaga Town
  47. Nakashibetsu Town
  48. Abashiri City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
ATKCH
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
23,313
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
0–61.68 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Rupture patterns
34
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
523
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →