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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Habikino fault zone

羽曳野断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeJMA 6.8

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as an active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of JMA 6.8. Its source elements span depths of 3–18 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range10.5 kmDeep18 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeJMA 6.8

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
4,800 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kawachinagano City
  2. Taishi Town
  3. Kanan Town
  4. Sakai Higashi Ward
  5. Sakai Minami Ward
  6. Sakai Mihara Ward
  7. Tondabayashi City
  8. Habikino City
  9. Osakasayama City
  10. Sakai Naka Ward
  11. Sakai Kita Ward
  12. Kashiwara City
Show 48 more places
  1. Fujiidera City
  2. Chihayaakasaka Village
  3. Osaka Sumiyoshi Ward
  4. Matsubara City
  5. Osaka Higashisumiyoshi Ward
  6. Osaka Hirano Ward
  7. Osaka Higashinari Ward
  8. Osaka Ikuno Ward
  9. Sakai Sakai Ward
  10. Osaka Joto Ward
  11. Osaka Tsurumi Ward
  12. Osaka Suminoe Ward
  13. Sakai Nishi Ward
  14. Izumiotsu City
  15. Yao City
  16. Higashiosaka City
  17. Tadaoka Town
  18. Yamatotakada City
  19. Osaka
  20. Osaka Taisho Ward
  21. Osaka Naniwa Ward
  22. Miyake Town
  23. Koryo Town
  24. Osaka Miyakojima Ward
  25. Osaka Nishi Ward
  26. Osaka Asahi Ward
  27. Ando Town
  28. Oji Town
  29. Daito City
  30. Tawaramoto Town
  31. Kashiba City
  32. Osaka Abeno Ward
  33. Osaka Nishinari Ward
  34. Izumi City
  35. Sango Town
  36. Ikaruga Town
  37. Kammaki Town
  38. Hashimoto City
  39. Kawai Town
  40. Nara
  41. Katsuragi City
  42. Osaka Tennoji Ward
  43. Kishiwada City
  44. Takaishi City
  45. Osaka Chuo Ward
  46. Kumatori Town
  47. Kashihara City
  48. Kaizuka City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
G030117
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
POI
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–18 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
3.5–12 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
15 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
180.6–212.1 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
3
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →