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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Tsushima fault zone

津島断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeJMA 7.3

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as an active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of JMA 7.3. Its source elements span depths of 3–18 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range10.5 kmDeep18 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeJMA 7.3

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
9,800 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Chita City
  2. Kaizu City
  3. Tarui Town
  4. Godo Town
  5. Ichinomiya City
  6. Inazawa City
  7. Iwakura City
  8. Kuwana City
  9. Ogaki City
  10. Hashima City
  11. Ginan Town
  12. Kasamatsu Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Yoro Town
  2. Ampachi Town
  3. Nagoya Kita Ward
  4. Nagoya Nishi Ward
  5. Nagoya Nakamura Ward
  6. Nagoya Atsuta Ward
  7. Nagoya Nakagawa Ward
  8. Nagoya Minato Ward
  9. Nagoya Minami Ward
  10. Tsushima City
  11. Kariya City
  12. Tokoname City
  13. Komaki City
  14. Tokai City
  15. Takahama City
  16. Aisai City
  17. Kiyosu City
  18. Kitanagoya City
  19. Yatomi City
  20. Toyoyama Town
  21. Kanie Town
  22. Tobishima Village
  23. Higashiura Town
  24. Kisosaki Town
  25. Kawagoe Town
  26. Kakamigahara City
  27. Mizuho City
  28. Wanouchi Town
  29. Aichi
  30. Nagoya Chikusa Ward
  31. Nagoya Higashi Ward
  32. Nagoya Naka Ward
  33. Nagoya Mizuho Ward
  34. Handa City
  35. Konan City
  36. Miyoshi City
  37. Ama City
  38. Oharu Town
  39. Agui Town
  40. Yokkaichi City
  41. Toin Town
  42. Motosu City
  43. Sekigahara Town
  44. Nagoya Showa Ward
  45. Nagoya Moriyama Ward
  46. Nagoya Midori Ward
  47. Nagoya Tenpaku Ward
  48. Kasugai City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
G030093
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
POI
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–18 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
30.6 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
15 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
155 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
5
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →