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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Kitan-kaikyo - Naruto-Kaikyo segment TO Houyo-kaikyo - Yufuin segment)

中央構造線断層帯（紀淡海峡－鳴門海峡区間～豊予海峡－由布院区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.8

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.8. Its source elements span depths of 2–16.86 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9.4 kmDeep16.9 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.8

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Ubuyama Village
  2. Nobeoka City
  3. Saiki City
  4. Tsukumi City
  5. Taketa City
  6. Bungo Ohno City
  7. Minamioguni Town
  8. Usuki City
  9. Kitsuki City
  10. Yufu City
  11. Kusu Town
  12. Matsuno Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Kihoku Town
  2. Tsuno Town
  3. Beppu City
  4. Hiji Town
  5. Kokonoe Town
  6. Ainan Town
  7. Sukumo City
  8. Shimanto City
  9. Kuroshio Town
  10. Oita City
  11. Kitagawa Village
  12. Yusuhara Town
  13. Yame City
  14. Soeda Town
  15. Aka Village
  16. Hita City
  17. Miyazaki
  18. Muroto City
  19. Nahari Town
  20. Tano Town
  21. Chikugo City
  22. Okawa City
  23. Buzen City
  24. Itoda Town
  25. Oto Town
  26. Koge Town
  27. Saga City
  28. Usa City
  29. Kunisaki City
  30. Oki Town
  31. Yoshitomi Town
  32. Kanzaki City
  33. Bungotakada City
  34. Kumano Town
  35. Tabuse Town
  36. Uwajima City
  37. Yawatahama City
  38. Seiyo City
  39. Uchiko Town
  40. Ikata Town
  41. Nakatosa Town
  42. Iizuka City
  43. Tagawa City
  44. Yanagawa City
  45. Kama City
  46. Keisen Town
  47. Chikujo Town
  48. Shiso City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201DJ
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
16
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–16.86 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
14–92 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–20 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
240.7–290.3 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
113
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →