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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Kitan-kaikyo - Naruto-Kaikyo segment TO Ishizuchi-sanmyaku-hokuen segment)

中央構造線断層帯（紀淡海峡－鳴門海峡区間～石鎚山脈北縁区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.7

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.7. Its source elements span depths of 2–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.7

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years<0.01%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Shirahama Town
  2. Tanabe, Tanabe City
  3. Wake Town
  4. Osakikamijima Town
  5. Aki City
  6. Toyo Town
  7. Yasuda Town
  8. Geisei Village
  9. Okawa Village
  10. Nakatosa Town
  11. Aioi City
  12. Nishiwaki City
Show 48 more places
  1. Ichikawa Town
  2. Kamigori Town
  3. Minabe Town
  4. Ibara City
  5. Takehara City
  6. Motoyama Town
  7. Inami Town
  8. Mugi Town
  9. Niihama City
  10. Saijo City
  11. Kami City
  12. Otoyo Town
  13. Okayama Naka Ward
  14. Yakage Town
  15. Fukuyama City
  16. Higashihiroshima City
  17. Kamikatsu Town
  18. Nankoku City
  19. Konan City
  20. Fukusaki Town
  21. Kasaoka City
  22. Bizen City
  23. Akaiwa City
  24. Satosho Town
  25. Naka Town
  26. Minami Town
  27. Kaiyo Town
  28. Gobo City
  29. Kawabe, Hidakagawa Town
  30. Okayama Kita Ward
  31. Okayama Higashi Ward
  32. Okayama Minami Ward
  33. Tamano City
  34. Soja City
  35. Setouchi City
  36. Hayashima Town
  37. Naoshima Town
  38. Susaki City
  39. Niyodogawa Town
  40. Ochi Town
  41. Kobe City Kita Ward
  42. Ako City
  43. Kato City
  44. Kimino Town
  45. Yuasa Town
  46. Hirogawa Town
  47. Hidaka Town
  48. Yura Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201DG
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
8
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
30–86 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
253.9–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
63
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →