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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Kitan-kaikyo - Naruto-Kaikyo segment TO Sanuki-sanmyaku-nanen eastern segment)

中央構造線断層帯（紀淡海峡－鳴門海峡区間～讃岐山脈南縁東部区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.19%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.38%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.4. Its source elements span depths of 4–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.19%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow4 kmMid-range10 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.19%Within 50 years0.38%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Hannan City
  2. Gobo City
  3. Yuasa Town
  4. Hirogawa Town
  5. Hidaka Town
  6. Yura Town
  7. Anan City
  8. Katsuura Town
  9. Misaki Town
  10. Awaji City
  11. Kainan City
  12. Arida City
Show 48 more places
  1. Iwade City
  2. Waki Mima Anabuki, Mima City
  3. Sanagochi Village
  4. Kamiyama Town
  5. Handa Sadamitsu, Tsurugi Town
  6. Higashimiyoshi Town
  7. Kagawa
  8. Sakaide City
  9. Zentsuji City
  10. Sanuki City
  11. Higashikagawa City
  12. Shodoshima Town
  13. Ayagawa Town
  14. Kotohira Town
  15. Tadotsu Town
  16. Manno Town
  17. Sennan City
  18. Sumoto City
  19. Takasago City
  20. Wakayama
  21. Kinokawa City
  22. Naruto City
  23. Yoshinogawa City
  24. Awa City
  25. Kamiita Town
  26. Takamatsu City
  27. Marugame City
  28. Miki Town
  29. Utazu Town
  30. Izumiotsu City
  31. Izumisano City
  32. Tadaoka Town
  33. Tajiri Town
  34. Minamiawaji City
  35. Tokushima
  36. Tokushima City
  37. Komatsushima City
  38. Ishii Town
  39. Itano Town
  40. Osaka Nishiyodogawa Ward
  41. Osaka Yodogawa Ward
  42. Takaishi City
  43. Kobe City Hyogo Ward
  44. Kobe City Nagata Ward
  45. Wakayama City
  46. Okayama Minami Ward
  47. Tamano City
  48. Setouchi City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201DE
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
4
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
4–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
44–56 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
257.3–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
33
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →