Japan earthquakes, down to the local station
EN
Open interactive map
MenuMore
J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Negoro segment TO Sanuki-sanmyaku-nanen eastern segment)

中央構造線断層帯（根来区間～讃岐山脈南縁東部区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.5

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.03%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.5. Its source elements span depths of 4–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow4 kmMid-range10 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.5

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.01%Within 50 years0.03%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Okayama Kita Ward
  2. Tatsuno City
  3. Nosegawa Village
  4. Kimino Town
  5. Koya Town
  6. Inami Town
  7. Kawabe, Hidakagawa Town
  8. Okayama Naka Ward
  9. Soja City
  10. Setouchi City
  11. Sakai Minami Ward
  12. Gobo City
Show 48 more places
  1. Kudoyama Town
  2. Yuasa Town
  3. Kibikanaya, Aridagawa Town
  4. Hidaka Town
  5. Yura Town
  6. Minabe Town
  7. Osaka Abeno Ward
  8. Osaka Nishinari Ward
  9. Sakai Mihara Ward
  10. Habikino City
  11. Osakasayama City
  12. Itami City
  13. Northern Gojo City
  14. Kainan City
  15. Hashimoto City
  16. Arida City
  17. Kinokawa City
  18. Katsuragi, Katsuragi Town
  19. Hirogawa Town
  20. Naka Town
  21. Mugi Town
  22. Minami Town
  23. Kaiyo Town
  24. Osaka Tennoji Ward
  25. Osaka Sumiyoshi Ward
  26. Sakai Naka Ward
  27. Sakai Higashi Ward
  28. Kawachinagano City
  29. Izumi City
  30. Hannan City
  31. Misaki Town
  32. Chihayaakasaka Village
  33. Nishinomiya City
  34. Takarazuka City
  35. Shimoichi Town
  36. Okayama
  37. Kurashiki City
  38. Bizen City
  39. Akaiwa City
  40. Hayashima Town
  41. Kamikatsu Town
  42. Osaka Chuo Ward
  43. Sakai Sakai Ward
  44. Sakai Kita Ward
  45. Kishiwada City
  46. Tondabayashi City
  47. Sennan City
  48. Kumatori Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201CE
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
6
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
4–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
28–56 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
257.3–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
43
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →