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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Negoro segment TO Kitan-kaikyo - Naruto-Kaikyo segment)

中央構造線断層帯（根来区間～紀淡海峡－鳴門海峡区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.03%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.2. Its source elements span depths of 4–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow4 kmMid-range10 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.01%Within 50 years0.03%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Koya Town
  2. Hashimoto City
  3. Kimino Town
  4. Kudoyama Town
  5. Kibikanaya, Aridagawa Town
  6. Kainan City
  7. Arida City
  8. Gobo City
  9. Kinokawa City
  10. Yuasa Town
  11. Hirogawa Town
  12. Yura Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Osaka Abeno Ward
  2. Sakai Minami Ward
  3. Tondabayashi City
  4. Izumi City
  5. Osakasayama City
  6. Hannan City
  7. Northern Gojo City
  8. Katsuragi, Katsuragi Town
  9. Kawabe, Hidakagawa Town
  10. Sakai Naka Ward
  11. Sakai Higashi Ward
  12. Sakai Mihara Ward
  13. Kishiwada City
  14. Sennan City
  15. Kumatori Town
  16. Misaki Town
  17. Chihayaakasaka Village
  18. Iwade City
  19. Hidaka Town
  20. Osaka Chuo Ward
  21. Sakai Kita Ward
  22. Kaizuka City
  23. Izumisano City
  24. Kawachinagano City
  25. Habikino City
  26. Takaishi City
  27. Taishi Town
  28. Kanan Town
  29. Sumoto City
  30. Itami City
  31. Awaji City
  32. Anan City
  33. Osaka Tennoji Ward
  34. Osaka Nishiyodogawa Ward
  35. Osaka Sumiyoshi Ward
  36. Osaka Nishinari Ward
  37. Sakai Nishi Ward
  38. Ikeda City
  39. Kobe City Nada Ward
  40. Harima Town
  41. Wakayama City
  42. Naruto City
  43. Sanagochi Village
  44. Sanuki City
  45. Shodoshima Town
  46. Osaka Konohana Ward
  47. Sakai Sakai Ward
  48. Matsubara City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201CD
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
4
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
4–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
28–46 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
258.1–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
25
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →