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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Gojoya segment TO Ishizuchi-sanmyaku-hokuen segment)

中央構造線断層帯（五条谷区間～石鎚山脈北縁区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.7

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.7. Its source elements span depths of 2–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.7

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years<0.01%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Owase City
  2. Kumano City
  3. Soni Village
  4. Taiki Town
  5. Kihoku Town
  6. Tenkawa Village
  7. Totsukawa Village
  8. Mihama Town
  9. Kurotaki Village
  10. Higashiyoshino Village
  11. Shirahama Town
  12. Kasagi Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Minoh City
  2. Asuka Village
  3. Nosegawa Village
  4. Tanabe, Tanabe City
  5. Koya Town
  6. Minamiyamashiro Village
  7. Uda City
  8. Yoshino Town
  9. Shimoichi Town
  10. Kyoto Kita Ward
  11. Wazuka Town
  12. Gose City
  13. Takatori Town
  14. Oyodo Town
  15. Wake Town
  16. Osakikamijima Town
  17. Aki City
  18. Toyo Town
  19. Yasuda Town
  20. Geisei Village
  21. Okawa Village
  22. Nakatosa Town
  23. Kyoto Sakyo Ward
  24. Aioi City
  25. Nishiwaki City
  26. Ichikawa Town
  27. Kamigori Town
  28. Minabe Town
  29. Ibara City
  30. Takehara City
  31. Motoyama Town
  32. Inami Town
  33. Mugi Town
  34. Niihama City
  35. Saijo City
  36. Kami City
  37. Otoyo Town
  38. Eastern Tsu City
  39. Eastern Matsusaka City
  40. Kyoto Yamashina Ward
  41. Kanan Town
  42. Chihayaakasaka Village
  43. Kobe City Kita Ward
  44. Northern Gojo City
  45. Heguri Town
  46. Kimino Town
  47. Kudoyama Town
  48. Okayama Naka Ward

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201BG
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
12
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
28–86 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
249.5–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
81
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →