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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Gojoya segment TO Kitan-kaikyo - Naruto-Kaikyo segment)

中央構造線断層帯（五条谷区間～紀淡海峡－鳴門海峡区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.03%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.4. Its source elements span depths of 4–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow4 kmMid-range10 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.01%Within 50 years0.03%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Tenkawa Village
  2. Koya Town
  3. Taishi Town
  4. Shimoichi Town
  5. Kurotaki Village
  6. Kawachinagano City
  7. Kanan Town
  8. Northern Gojo City
  9. Katsuragi City
  10. Yoshino Town
  11. Oyodo Town
  12. Higashiyoshino Village
Show 48 more places
  1. Hashimoto City
  2. Kudoyama Town
  3. Habikino City
  4. Chihayaakasaka Village
  5. Sakurai City
  6. Uda City
  7. Sango Town
  8. Takatori Town
  9. Kammaki Town
  10. Nosegawa Village
  11. Katsuragi, Katsuragi Town
  12. Western Nara City
  13. Yamatokoriyama City
  14. Tenri City
  15. Gose City
  16. Kashiba City
  17. Heguri Town
  18. Ikaruga Town
  19. Asuka Village
  20. Kawai Town
  21. Kimino Town
  22. Tondabayashi City
  23. Izumi City
  24. Ikoma City
  25. Osaka Tennoji Ward
  26. Sakai Minami Ward
  27. Gobo City
  28. Yuasa Town
  29. Kibikanaya, Aridagawa Town
  30. Yura Town
  31. Inami Town
  32. Minabe Town
  33. Kawabe, Hidakagawa Town
  34. Kyoto Nishikyo Ward
  35. Osaka Abeno Ward
  36. Osaka Nishinari Ward
  37. Osaka Chuo Ward
  38. Sakai Mihara Ward
  39. Kashiwara City
  40. Fujiidera City
  41. Osakasayama City
  42. Itami City
  43. Nara
  44. Kainan City
  45. Arida City
  46. Kinokawa City
  47. Hirogawa Town
  48. Hidaka Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201BD
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
6
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
4–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
28–46 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
249.5–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
33
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →