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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (All segment)

中央構造線断層帯（全体が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.9

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.9. Its source elements span depths of 2–16.86 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9.4 kmDeep16.9 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.9

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kiho Town
  2. Shimokitayama Village
  3. Kamikitayama Village
  4. Shingu City
  5. Kamitonda Town
  6. Matsuno Town
  7. Kihoku Town
  8. Kitagawa Village
  9. Tsuno Town
  10. Shimanto Town
  11. Ubuyama Village
  12. Nobeoka City
Show 48 more places
  1. Hyuga City
  2. Kadogawa Town
  3. Mitsue Village
  4. Ainan Town
  5. Muroto City
  6. Sukumo City
  7. Shimanto City
  8. Nahari Town
  9. Tano Town
  10. Kuroshio Town
  11. Saiki City
  12. Tsukumi City
  13. Taketa City
  14. Bungo Ohno City
  15. Nabari City
  16. Kumano City
  17. Odai Town
  18. Minamiise Town
  19. Yamazoe Village
  20. Yusuhara Town
  21. Minamioguni Town
  22. Usuki City
  23. Kitsuki City
  24. Yufu City
  25. Kusu Town
  26. Taki Town
  27. Tamaki Town
  28. Toyono Town
  29. Sanda City
  30. Soni Village
  31. Beppu City
  32. Hiji Town
  33. Kokonoe Town
  34. Owase City
  35. Taiki Town
  36. Kihoku Town
  37. Mihama Town
  38. Shiso City
  39. Inagawa Town
  40. Totsukawa Village
  41. Shirahama Town
  42. Kumano Town
  43. Nakatosa Town
  44. Oita City
  45. Ise City
  46. Nose Town
  47. Tabuse Town
  48. Uwajima City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201AJ
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
22
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–16.86 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
14–92 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–20 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
176.8–290.3 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
131
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →