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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Kongo-sanchi-toen segment TO Iyonada segment)

中央構造線断層帯（金剛山地東縁区間～伊予灘区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.8

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.8. Its source elements span depths of 2–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.8

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Matsuno Town
  2. Kihoku Town
  3. Tsuno Town
  4. Kamikitayama Village
  5. Shingu City
  6. Ainan Town
  7. Sukumo City
  8. Shimanto City
  9. Kitagawa Village
  10. Kuroshio Town
  11. Muroto City
  12. Nahari Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Tano Town
  2. Yusuhara Town
  3. Nabari City
  4. Kumano City
  5. Odai Town
  6. Minamiise Town
  7. Yamazoe Village
  8. Owase City
  9. Toyono Town
  10. Sanda City
  11. Soni Village
  12. Taiki Town
  13. Kihoku Town
  14. Mihama Town
  15. Shiso City
  16. Inagawa Town
  17. Totsukawa Village
  18. Shirahama Town
  19. Kumano Town
  20. Tabuse Town
  21. Uwajima City
  22. Yawatahama City
  23. Seiyo City
  24. Uchiko Town
  25. Ikata Town
  26. Nakatosa Town
  27. Saiki City
  28. Nose Town
  29. Kudamatsu City
  30. Hirao Town
  31. Nobeoka City
  32. Kyoto Nakagyo Ward
  33. Tenkawa Village
  34. Higashiyoshino Village
  35. Hiroshima City Saeki Ward
  36. Hikari City
  37. Ozu City
  38. Tsukumi City
  39. Kunisaki City
  40. Himeshima Village
  41. Kyoto Higashiyama Ward
  42. Kasagi Town
  43. Kurotaki Village
  44. Tanabe, Tanabe City
  45. Kaminoseki Town
  46. Usuki City
  47. Bungo Ohno City
  48. Minoh City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201AI
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
16
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
18–92 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
176.8–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
117
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →