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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Median Tectonic Line (MTL) fault zone (FROM Kongo-sanchi-toen segment TO Sanuki-sanmyaku-nanen eastern segment)

中央構造線断層帯（金剛山地東縁区間～讃岐山脈南縁東部区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.6

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.6. Its source elements span depths of 2–16 km below the surface. It considers 2 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9 kmDeep16 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.6

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Owase City
  2. Kihoku Town
  3. Kurotaki Village
  4. Tenkawa Village
  5. Totsukawa Village
  6. Higashiyoshino Village
  7. Mihama Town
  8. Kasagi Town
  9. Minoh City
  10. Heguri Town
  11. Minamiyamashiro Village
  12. Wazuka Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Asuka Village
  2. Nosegawa Village
  3. Uda City
  4. Yoshino Town
  5. Shimoichi Town
  6. Kyoto Kita Ward
  7. Kyoto Ukyo Ward
  8. Gose City
  9. Takatori Town
  10. Oyodo Town
  11. Koya Town
  12. Kyoto Sakyo Ward
  13. Tanabe, Tanabe City
  14. Hayashima Town
  15. Ujitawara Town
  16. Taishi Town
  17. Kyoto Nishikyo Ward
  18. Kameoka City
  19. Muko City
  20. Katano City
  21. Kanan Town
  22. Chihayaakasaka Village
  23. Northern Gojo City
  24. Kudoyama Town
  25. Eastern Matsusaka City
  26. Kyoto Minami Ward
  27. Kyoto Yamashina Ward
  28. Nagaokakyo City
  29. Ikeda City
  30. Itami City
  31. Takarazuka City
  32. Kato City
  33. Ikoma City
  34. Kimino Town
  35. Minabe Town
  36. Kusatsu City
  37. Nantan City
  38. Ide Town
  39. Seika Town
  40. Kawachinagano City
  41. Shimamoto Town
  42. Kawanishi City
  43. Kasai City
  44. Inami Town
  45. Ritto City
  46. Kyoto Shimogyo Ward
  47. Kyoto Fushimi Ward
  48. Joyo City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F0201AE
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
10
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–16 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
18–56 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
12–18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
40–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
176.8–258.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Rupture patterns
2
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
51
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →