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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Iwakuni-Itsukaichi fault zone (Itsukaichi fault segment/Iwakuni fault segment)

岩国－五日市断層帯（五日市断層区間と岩国断層区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.2. Its source elements span depths of 2–18.91 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range10.5 kmDeep18.9 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Akitakata City
  2. Akiota Town
  3. Kumano Town
  4. Kitahiroshima Town
  5. Tsuwano Town
  6. Tabuse Town
  7. Kudamatsu City
  8. Hikari City
  9. Shimane
  10. Hiroshima City Saeki Ward
  11. Hiroshima City Naka Ward
  12. Hiroshima City Minami Ward
Show 28 more places
  1. Hiroshima City Nishi Ward
  2. Hiroshima City Aki Ward
  3. Otake City
  4. Kaita Town
  5. Waki Town
  6. Hatsukaichi City
  7. Fuchu Town
  8. Yanai City
  9. Shunan City
  10. Hiroshima City Asakita Ward
  11. Etajima City
  12. Saka Town
  13. Hiroshima City Asaminami Ward
  14. Hofu City
  15. Iwakuni City
  16. Hiroshima City Higashi Ward
  17. Hirao Town
  18. Yamaguchi City
  19. Himeshima Village
  20. Kaminoseki Town
  21. Kunisaki City
  22. Bungotakada City
  23. Hiroshima
  24. Suo Oshima Town
  25. Kure City
  26. Higashihiroshima City
  27. Yamaguchi
  28. Oita

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01860A
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–18.91 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
28–48 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
70 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
206.8–236.3 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
17
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →