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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Kikugawa fault zone (Central segment/Southern segment)

菊川断層帯（中部区間と南部区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.16%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.27%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.2. Its source elements span depths of 2–20 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.16%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range11 kmDeep20 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.16%Within 50 years0.27%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kanda Town
  2. Shimonoseki City
  3. Ube City
  4. Sanyo Onoda City
  5. Mine City
  6. Kitakyushu Moji Ward
  7. Yamaguchi
  8. Nagato City
  9. Kitakyushu Tobata Ward
  10. Buzen City
  11. Yoshitomi Town
  12. Koge Town
Show 24 more places
  1. Usa City
  2. Yukuhashi City
  3. Chikujo Town
  4. Nakatsu City
  5. Hofu City
  6. Kitakyushu Kokurakita Ward
  7. Kitakyushu Kokuraminami Ward
  8. Bungotakada City
  9. Kunisaki City
  10. Yamaguchi City
  11. Hagi City
  12. Himeshima Village
  13. Kitakyushu Wakamatsu Ward
  14. Kitakyushu Yahatahigashi Ward
  15. Kitakyushu Yahatanishi Ward
  16. Nakama City
  17. Miyako Town
  18. Ashiya Town
  19. Mizumaki Town
  20. Onga Town
  21. Oita
  22. Nogata City
  23. Kurate Town
  24. Fukuoka

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01830A
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–20 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
20–44 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
133–149.2 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
9
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →