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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Yamasaki fault zone (Main part Northwestern/Southeastern segment)

山崎断層帯（主部北西部区間と主部南東部区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.3

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.3. Its source elements span depths of 2–20 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is <0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range11 kmDeep20 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.3

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years<0.01%Within 50 years<0.01%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Taka Town
  2. Iwami Town
  3. Wakasa Town
  4. Nishiwaki City
  5. Shiso City
  6. Tatsuno City
  7. Kamikawa Town
  8. Kamigori Town
  9. Sayo Town
  10. Yazu Town
  11. Tsuyama City
  12. Mimasaka City
Show 48 more places
  1. Misaki Town
  2. Kobe City Kita Ward
  3. Himeji City
  4. Aioi City
  5. Kasai City
  6. Asago City
  7. Kato City
  8. Ichikawa Town
  9. Fukusaki Town
  10. Northern Tottori City
  11. Kurayoshi City
  12. Chizu Town
  13. Yurihama Town
  14. Hokuei Town
  15. Maniwa City
  16. Shoo Town
  17. Nagi Town
  18. Nishiawakura Village
  19. Miki City
  20. Sanda City
  21. Tanba Sasayama City
  22. Kagamino Town
  23. Inami Town
  24. Tottori
  25. Ono City
  26. Kobe City Nishi Ward
  27. Ako City
  28. Tamba City
  29. Kobe City Tarumi Ward
  30. Akashi City
  31. Kobe City Nada Ward
  32. Kobe City Suma Ward
  33. Hyogo
  34. Kobe City Chuo Ward
  35. Kakogawa City
  36. Bizen City
  37. Wake Town
  38. Harima Town
  39. Takarazuka City
  40. Akaiwa City
  41. Setouchi City
  42. Okayama Higashi Ward
  43. Kobe City Higashinada Ward
  44. Kobe City Nagata Ward
  45. Takasago City
  46. Kawanishi City
  47. Kobe City Hyogo Ward
  48. Nishinomiya City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01770A
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–20 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
32–54 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
303.7–309.9 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
14
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →