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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Itoigawa-Shizuoka-kozosen fault zone (Central northern segment/Central southern segment/Southern segment)

糸魚川－静岡構造線断層帯（中北部と中南部と南部が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.02%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.4. Its source elements span depths of 2–19.56 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range10.8 kmDeep19.6 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.01%Within 50 years0.02%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Minobu Town
  2. Hayakawa Town
  3. Komagane City
  4. Tomi City
  5. Sakuho Town
  6. Tateshina Town
  7. Nagawa Town
  8. Miyada Village
  9. Kofu City
  10. Yamanashi City
  11. Nirasaki City
  12. Fuefuki City
Show 48 more places
  1. Ichikawamisato Town
  2. Narusawa Village
  3. Fujikawaguchiko Town
  4. Ueda City
  5. Suzaka City
  6. Ina, Ina City
  7. Saku City
  8. Koumi Town
  9. Kawakami Village
  10. Minamiaiki Village
  11. Kitaaiki Village
  12. Aoki Village
  13. Iijima Town
  14. Nakagawa Village
  15. Oshika Village
  16. Sakaki Town
  17. Obuse Town
  18. Shizuoka Aoi Ward
  19. Shizuoka Suruga Ward
  20. Fujinomiya City
  21. Fuji City
  22. Kawanehoncho Town
  23. Yamanashi
  24. Fujiyoshida City
  25. Fujikawa Town
  26. Showa Town
  27. Oshino Village
  28. Yamanakako Village
  29. Minamiminowa Village
  30. Shizuoka Shimizu Ward
  31. Numazu City
  32. Minamialps City
  33. Kai City
  34. Matsumoto, Matsumoto City
  35. Omachi City
  36. Chikuma City
  37. Omi Village
  38. Ikusaka Village
  39. Yamagata Village
  40. Chikuhoku Village
  41. Hakuba Village
  42. Tsuru City
  43. Hokuto City
  44. Chuo City
  45. Nagano, Nagano City
  46. Okaya City
  47. Chino City
  48. Shiojiri, Shiojiri City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01622E
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
9
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–19.56 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
5.7–33.9 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
10–22 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
45–70 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
116–339.2 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
25
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →