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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Isehara fault

伊勢原断層

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 6.6

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 6.6. Its source elements span depths of 2–14.73 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is <0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range8.4 kmDeep14.7 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 6.6

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years<0.01%Within 50 years<0.01%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
4,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
1,620 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kiyokawa Village
  2. Aikawa Town
  3. Hachioji City
  4. Machida City
  5. Hino City
  6. Yokohama Asahi Ward
  7. Yokohama Aoba Ward
  8. Sagamihara Midori Ward
  9. Sagamihara Chuo Ward
  10. Sagamihara Minami Ward
  11. Chigasaki City
  12. Zama City
Show 34 more places
  1. Ayase City
  2. Samukawa Town
  3. Oiso Town
  4. Yokohama Kanagawa Ward
  5. Yokohama Isogo Ward
  6. Yokohama Totsuka Ward
  7. Yokohama Konan Ward
  8. Yokohama Midori Ward
  9. Yokohama Seya Ward
  10. Yokohama Izumi Ward
  11. Yokohama Tsuzuki Ward
  12. Fujisawa City
  13. Odawara City
  14. Hadano City
  15. Atsugi City
  16. Yamato City
  17. Ninomiya Town
  18. Nakai Town
  19. Oi Town
  20. Yokohama Nishi Ward
  21. Yokohama Naka Ward
  22. Yokohama Minami Ward
  23. Yokohama Hodogaya Ward
  24. Yokohama Kanazawa Ward
  25. Yokohama Sakae Ward
  26. Kawasaki Saiwai Ward
  27. Kawasaki Takatsu Ward
  28. Hiratsuka City
  29. Kamakura City
  30. Isehara City
  31. Ebina City
  32. Tokyo
  33. Kanagawa
  34. Yokohama Kohoku Ward

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F015321
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–14.73 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
22 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
45 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
351.5 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
8
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →