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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Miura-hanto fault group (Main part/Kinugasa/Kitatake fault zone)

三浦半島断層群主部衣笠・北武断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 6.7

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years3.06%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years5.17%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 6.7. Its source elements span depths of 3–15.73 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 3.06%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range9.4 kmDeep15.7 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 6.7

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years3.06%Within 50 years5.17%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
1,900 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
1,520 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Yokohama Konan Ward
  2. Yokohama Sakae Ward
  3. Kisarazu City
  4. Kimitsu City
  5. Futtsu City
  6. Sodegaura City
  7. Kyonan Town
  8. Kanagawa
  9. Yokohama Kanagawa Ward
  10. Yokohama Nishi Ward
  11. Yokohama Hodogaya Ward
  12. Yokohama Isogo Ward
Show 40 more places
  1. Yokohama Kanazawa Ward
  2. Yokohama Totsuka Ward
  3. Yokohama Asahi Ward
  4. Chiba
  5. Yokohama Tsurumi Ward
  6. Yokohama Naka Ward
  7. Yokohama Minami Ward
  8. Yokohama Kohoku Ward
  9. Yokohama Seya Ward
  10. Yokohama Izumi Ward
  11. Kawasaki Kawasaki Ward
  12. Yokosuka City
  13. Kamakura City
  14. Fujisawa City
  15. Chigasaki City
  16. Zushi City
  17. Miura City
  18. Atsugi City
  19. Yamato City
  20. Ebina City
  21. Ayase City
  22. Hayama Town
  23. Samukawa Town
  24. Ota City
  25. Yokohama Midori Ward
  26. Yokohama Tsuzuki Ward
  27. Kawasaki Saiwai Ward
  28. Kawasaki Nakahara Ward
  29. Kawasaki Takatsu Ward
  30. Kawasaki Miyamae Ward
  31. Hiratsuka City
  32. Tateyama City
  33. Minamiboso City
  34. Yokohama Aoba Ward
  35. Isehara City
  36. Zama City
  37. Tokyo
  38. Meguro City
  39. Hadano City
  40. Oiso Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F015221
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–15.73 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
28 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
45 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
300 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
11
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →