Japan earthquakes, down to the local station
EN
Open interactive map
MenuMore
J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Hinagu fault zone (Hinagu segment/Yatsushirokai segment)

日奈久断層帯（日奈久区間と八代海区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years1.58%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years2.58%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.2. Its source elements span depths of 3–17 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 1.58%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range10 kmDeep17 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years1.58%Within 50 years2.58%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kumamoto
  2. Kumamoto Kita Ward
  3. Kamiamakusa City
  4. Amakusa City
  5. Koshi City
  6. Kikuyo Town
  7. Nishihara Village
  8. Kuma Village
  9. Akune City
  10. Izumi City
  11. Satsuma Town
  12. Kumamoto Chuo Ward
Show 41 more places
  1. Kumamoto Higashi Ward
  2. Kumamoto Nishi Ward
  3. Hitoyoshi City
  4. Minamata City
  5. Tamana City
  6. Uto City
  7. Uki City
  8. Gyokuto Town
  9. Ozu Town
  10. Mifune Town
  11. Mashiki Town
  12. Kosa Town
  13. Hikawa Town
  14. Tsunagi Town
  15. Satsumasendai City
  16. Isa City
  17. Nagashima Town
  18. Yusui Town
  19. Western Yatsushiro City
  20. Kashima Town
  21. Ashikita Town
  22. Taragi Town
  23. Sagara Village
  24. Itsuki Village
  25. Ebino City
  26. Arao City
  27. Yamaga City
  28. Kikuchi City
  29. Nagasu Town
  30. Yamato Town
  31. Nishiki Town
  32. Miyazaki
  33. Kumamoto Minami Ward
  34. Nagomi Town
  35. Reihoku Town
  36. Aso City
  37. Shimabara City
  38. Unzen City
  39. Minamiaso Village
  40. Minamishimabara City
  41. Nagasaki

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01310C
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–17 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
34–44 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
14–16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
60–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
218.6–227.3 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
16
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →