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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Hinagu fault zone (All segment)

日奈久断層帯 (全体が同時に活動)

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.3

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years<0.01%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.3. Its source elements span depths of 3–17 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is <0.01%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range10 kmDeep17 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.3

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years<0.01%Within 50 years<0.01%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Nankan Town
  2. Nagomi Town
  3. Yamaga City
  4. Kikuchi City
  5. Minamiaso Village
  6. Itsuki Village
  7. Yamae Village
  8. Satsuma Town
  9. Hitoyoshi City
  10. Gyokuto Town
  11. Ozu Town
  12. Yamato Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Nishiki Town
  2. Kuma Village
  3. Nagashima Town
  4. Kumamoto Kita Ward
  5. Koshi City
  6. Kikuyo Town
  7. Nishihara Village
  8. Ashikita Town
  9. Taragi Town
  10. Sagara Village
  11. Ebino City
  12. Gokase Town
  13. Akune City
  14. Isa City
  15. Yusui Town
  16. Miyama City
  17. Aso City
  18. Miyazaki
  19. Izumi City
  20. Ichikikushikino City
  21. Arao City
  22. Minamata City
  23. Amakusa City
  24. Tsunagi Town
  25. Satsumasendai City
  26. Nagasu Town
  27. Reihoku Town
  28. Shimabara City
  29. Kumamoto
  30. Kumamoto Chuo Ward
  31. Kumamoto Higashi Ward
  32. Western Yatsushiro City
  33. Kamiamakusa City
  34. Isahaya City
  35. Minamishimabara City
  36. Tamana City
  37. Uki City
  38. Mifune Town
  39. Mashiki Town
  40. Kosa Town
  41. Hikawa Town
  42. Nagasaki
  43. Unzen City
  44. Kumamoto Nishi Ward
  45. Kashima Town
  46. Kumamoto Minami Ward
  47. Uto City
  48. Fukuoka

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01310A
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
3
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–17 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
20–44 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
14–16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
60–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
202.9–227.3 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
18
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →