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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Futagawa/Hinagu fault zone (Futagawa segment/all segment of Hinagu fault zone)

布田川断層帯・日奈久断層帯 (布田川区間と日奈久断層帯全体が同時に活動)

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.4. Its source elements span depths of 3–17 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range10 kmDeep17 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.4

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Nankan Town
  2. Takachiho Town
  3. Yamae Village
  4. Asagiri Town
  5. Hitoyoshi City
  6. Taragi Town
  7. Ebino City
  8. Gokase Town
  9. Aira City
  10. Satsuma Town
  11. Yusui Town
  12. Omuta City
Show 48 more places
  1. Nishiki Town
  2. Sagara Village
  3. Itsuki Village
  4. Hioki City
  5. Ichikikushikino City
  6. Gyokuto Town
  7. Ozu Town
  8. Kuma Village
  9. Isa City
  10. Minamata City
  11. Koshi City
  12. Tsunagi Town
  13. Izumi City
  14. Nagashima Town
  15. Tara Town
  16. Yamaga City
  17. Nagomi Town
  18. Kikuyo Town
  19. Nishihara Village
  20. Minamiaso Village
  21. Ashikita Town
  22. Satsumasendai City
  23. Aso City
  24. Minamioguni Town
  25. Ubuyama Village
  26. Reihoku Town
  27. Akune City
  28. Isahaya City
  29. Arao City
  30. Kikuchi City
  31. Yamato Town
  32. Taketa City
  33. Kumamoto Kita Ward
  34. Nagasu Town
  35. Mifune Town
  36. Mashiki Town
  37. Yanagawa City
  38. Miyama City
  39. Shimabara City
  40. Unzen City
  41. Minamishimabara City
  42. Kamiamakusa City
  43. Kosa Town
  44. Miyazaki
  45. Tamana City
  46. Amakusa City
  47. Kumamoto Chuo Ward
  48. Kumamoto Higashi Ward

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01300B
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
4
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–17 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
20–44 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
14–16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
60–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
202.9–233.2 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
21
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →