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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Futagawa fault zone (All segment)

布田川断層帯 (全体が同時に活動)

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.2. Its source elements span depths of 3–17 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range10 kmDeep17 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Nankan Town
  2. Omuta City
  3. Nagasaki City
  4. Gyokuto Town
  5. Gokase Town
  6. Miyama City
  7. Tara Town
  8. Ozu Town
  9. Reihoku Town
  10. Isahaya City
  11. Arao City
  12. Minamata City
Show 44 more places
  1. Yamaga City
  2. Koshi City
  3. Nagomi Town
  4. Tsunagi Town
  5. Nagashima Town
  6. Yanagawa City
  7. Nagasu Town
  8. Kikuyo Town
  9. Nishihara Village
  10. Minamiaso Village
  11. Ashikita Town
  12. Shimabara City
  13. Unzen City
  14. Minamishimabara City
  15. Aso City
  16. Ubuyama Village
  17. Kumamoto Kita Ward
  18. Tamana City
  19. Kikuchi City
  20. Yamato Town
  21. Minamioguni Town
  22. Mifune Town
  23. Mashiki Town
  24. Taketa City
  25. Nagasaki
  26. Uto City
  27. Kamiamakusa City
  28. Amakusa City
  29. Kosa Town
  30. Kumamoto Nishi Ward
  31. Kumamoto Chuo Ward
  32. Kumamoto Higashi Ward
  33. Kashima Town
  34. Hikawa Town
  35. Miyazaki
  36. Kumamoto Minami Ward
  37. Uki City
  38. Western Yatsushiro City
  39. Hita City
  40. Kokonoe Town
  41. Saga
  42. Kumamoto
  43. Fukuoka
  44. Oita

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01300A
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
3
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–17 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
22–32 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
14–16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
60–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
233.2–243.2 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
17
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →