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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Nishiyama fault zone (Nishiyama segment/Kama-toge segment)

西山断層帯（西山区間と嘉麻峠区間が同時に活動）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.3

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.08%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.14%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.3. Its source elements span depths of 2–18 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.08%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range10 kmDeep18 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.3

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.08%Within 50 years0.14%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kusu Town
  2. Yanagawa City
  3. Yame City
  4. Miyama City
  5. Toho Village
  6. Chikujo Town
  7. Saga City
  8. Minamioguni Town
  9. Hita City
  10. Kokonoe Town
  11. Kitakyushu Wakamatsu Ward
  12. Kitakyushu Yahatanishi Ward
Show 48 more places
  1. Okawa City
  2. Buzen City
  3. Kasuga City
  4. Onojo City
  5. Munakata City
  6. Koga City
  7. Fukutsu City
  8. Ukiha City
  9. Chikuzen Town
  10. Kawara Town
  11. Soeda Town
  12. Aka Village
  13. Aso City
  14. Fukuoka
  15. Fukuoka Higashi Ward
  16. Fukuoka Hakata Ward
  17. Fukuoka Jonan Ward
  18. Nogata City
  19. Tagawa City
  20. Chikugo City
  21. Nakama City
  22. Chikushino City
  23. Dazaifu City
  24. Miyawaka City
  25. Nakagawa City
  26. Umi Town
  27. Sasaguri Town
  28. Shime Town
  29. Sue Town
  30. Hisayama Town
  31. Kasuya Town
  32. Okagaki Town
  33. Kotake Town
  34. Kurate Town
  35. Keisen Town
  36. Oki Town
  37. Itoda Town
  38. Oto Town
  39. Fukuchi Town
  40. Miyako Town
  41. Saga
  42. Oita
  43. Nakatsu City
  44. Kitakyushu Tobata Ward
  45. Kitakyushu Kokuraminami Ward
  46. Fukuoka Chuo Ward
  47. Fukuoka Minami Ward
  48. Fukuoka Nishi Ward

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01220C
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–18 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
34–48 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
75–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
136.5–144.8 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
14
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →