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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Nishiyama fault zone (All segment)

西山断層帯 (全体が同時に活動)

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.5

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.08%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.14%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.5. Its source elements span depths of 2–18 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.08%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range10 kmDeep18 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.5

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.08%Within 50 years0.14%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Chikujo Town
  2. Iki City
  3. Yamaga City
  4. Minamioguni Town
  5. Kokonoe Town
  6. Kusu Town
  7. Yanagawa City
  8. Yame City
  9. Chikugo City
  10. Buzen City
  11. Miyama City
  12. Toho Village
Show 48 more places
  1. Soeda Town
  2. Miyako Town
  3. Yoshitomi Town
  4. Koge Town
  5. Saga
  6. Saga City
  7. Karatsu City
  8. Taku City
  9. Takeo City
  10. Ogi City
  11. Omachi Town
  12. Kohoku Town
  13. Shiroishi Town
  14. Nagomi Town
  15. Beppu City
  16. Nakatsu City
  17. Hita City
  18. Hiji Town
  19. Kitakyushu Wakamatsu Ward
  20. Kitakyushu Tobata Ward
  21. Kitakyushu Yahatahigashi Ward
  22. Kitakyushu Yahatanishi Ward
  23. Fukuoka Minami Ward
  24. Fukuoka Jonan Ward
  25. Omuta City
  26. Okawa City
  27. Kasuga City
  28. Onojo City
  29. Munakata City
  30. Koga City
  31. Fukutsu City
  32. Ukiha City
  33. Itoshima City
  34. Chikuzen Town
  35. Kawara Town
  36. Aka Village
  37. Yoshinogari Town
  38. Kamimine Town
  39. Aso City
  40. Kitsuki City
  41. Usa City
  42. Yufu City
  43. Fukuoka
  44. Kitakyushu Kokuraminami Ward
  45. Fukuoka Higashi Ward
  46. Fukuoka Hakata Ward
  47. Fukuoka Chuo Ward
  48. Kurume City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F01220A
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
SIM
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
3
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–18 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
34–48 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
75–90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
136.5–144.8 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
19
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →