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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Nishiyama fault zone (Nishiyama segment)

西山断層帯西山区間

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years1.78%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years2.95%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7. Its source elements span depths of 2–18 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 1.78%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range10 kmDeep18 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years1.78%Within 50 years2.95%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
8,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
13,000 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Iizuka City
  2. Munakata City
  3. Koga City
  4. Fukutsu City
  5. Miyawaka City
  6. Kama City
  7. Sasaguri Town
  8. Shingu Town
  9. Hisayama Town
  10. Okagaki Town
  11. Kurate Town
  12. Keisen Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Fukuoka Higashi Ward
  2. Fukuoka Hakata Ward
  3. Fukuoka Chuo Ward
  4. Nogata City
  5. Tagawa City
  6. Umi Town
  7. Shime Town
  8. Sue Town
  9. Kasuya Town
  10. Ashiya Town
  11. Onga Town
  12. Kotake Town
  13. Itoda Town
  14. Fukuoka
  15. Nakama City
  16. Chikushino City
  17. Dazaifu City
  18. Soeda Town
  19. Oto Town
  20. Fukuchi Town
  21. Fukuoka Nishi Ward
  22. Fukuoka Sawara Ward
  23. Asakura City
  24. Mizumaki Town
  25. Tachiarai Town
  26. Kitakyushu Yahatanishi Ward
  27. Fukuoka Minami Ward
  28. Yukuhashi City
  29. Onojo City
  30. Ukiha City
  31. Chikuzen Town
  32. Toho Village
  33. Aka Village
  34. Kitakyushu Wakamatsu Ward
  35. Fukuoka Jonan Ward
  36. Kurume City
  37. Kasuga City
  38. Nakagawa City
  39. Kawara Town
  40. Hita City
  41. Ogori City
  42. Miyako Town
  43. Saga
  44. Tosu City
  45. Kiyama Town
  46. Miyaki Town
  47. Kitakyushu Yahatahigashi Ward
  48. Itoshima City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F012202
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BSI
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–18 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
48 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
16 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
144.8 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
8
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →