The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.
Arima-Takatsuki fault zone
有馬−高槻断層帯
What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.
Reference model · not a forecastThe long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.
The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.
This model in plain language
J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.1. Its source elements span depths of 1–17 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.04%, not a prediction of a date.
Japan terrain and the source model in 3D
Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.
Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map
How to read the model data
Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.
Within 30 years0.04%Within 50 years0.08%
Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.
- Average recurrence interval
- 1,000 years A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
- Time since latest modelled activity
- 424 years How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.
Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.
Places where J-SHIS considers this model
In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.
- Nose Town→
- Kobe City Nada Ward→
- Kobe City Kita Ward→
- Kobe City Chuo Ward→
- Miki City→
- Sanda City→
- Kato City→
- Kyoto Kita Ward→
- Kyoto Sakyo Ward→
- Kobe City Suma Ward→
- Kobe City Tarumi Ward→
- Akashi City→
Show 48 more places
- Takarazuka City→
- Kawanishi City→
- Ono City→
- Inagawa Town→
- Inami Town→
- Kyoto Kamigyo Ward→
- Osaka Chuo Ward→
- Ikeda City→
- Minoh City→
- Toyono Town→
- Hyogo→
- Kobe City Higashinada Ward→
- Kobe City Nishi Ward→
- Ashiya City→
- Itami City→
- Kakogawa City→
- Harima Town→
- Kyoto Shimogyo Ward→
- Kyoto Nishikyo Ward→
- Kameoka City→
- Ujitawara Town→
- Osaka Tennoji Ward→
- Osaka Abeno Ward→
- Osaka Nishinari Ward→
- Toyonaka City→
- Suita City→
- Kobe City Hyogo Ward→
- Kobe City Nagata Ward→
- Nishinomiya City→
- Takasago City→
- Kasai City→
- Southern Otsu City→
- Kyoto Nakagyo Ward→
- Kyoto Higashiyama Ward→
- Kyoto Ukyo Ward→
- Kyoto Yamashina Ward→
- Muko City→
- Nagaokakyo City→
- Osaka Naniwa Ward→
- Amagasaki City→
- Nishiwaki City→
- Tanba Sasayama City→
- Kyoto→
- Oyamazaki Town→
- Osaka Nishiyodogawa Ward→
- Osaka Yodogawa Ward→
- Osaka Kita Ward→
- Ibaraki City→
Technical model data
J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.
- Model version
- Y2020 The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
- Probability case
- MAX MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
- J-SHIS code
- F007601 The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
- Estimation method code
- BPT An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
- Source elements
- 1 Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
- Depth
- 1–17 km The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
- Element length
- 60 km The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
- Element width
- 16 km The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
- Dip angle
- 90 ° The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
- Strike
- 78.6 ° The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
- Display grid cells
- 10 Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.
Source and limitations
Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.
In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.
Data retrieved: 05/09/2026