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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Nara-bonchi toen fault zone

奈良盆地東縁断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 6.9

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years4.52%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years7.43%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 6.9. Its source elements span depths of 1–15.74 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 4.52%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow1 kmMid-range8.4 kmDeep15.7 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 6.9

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years4.52%Within 50 years7.43%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
5,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
11,000 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kyoto Minami Ward
  2. Uji City
  3. Joyo City
  4. Yawata City
  5. Kyotanabe City
  6. Kizugawa City
  7. Ide Town
  8. Ujitawara Town
  9. Seika Town
  10. Hirakata City
  11. Shijonawate City
  12. Nara
Show 48 more places
  1. Western Nara City
  2. Yamatokoriyama City
  3. Tenri City
  4. Sakurai City
  5. Ikoma City
  6. Kashiba City
  7. Katsuragi City
  8. Uda City
  9. Ikaruga Town
  10. Takatori Town
  11. Asuka Village
  12. Kammaki Town
  13. Kawai Town
  14. Kyoto Fushimi Ward
  15. Kyoto Yamashina Ward
  16. Kumiyama Town
  17. Kasagi Town
  18. Wazuka Town
  19. Minamiyamashiro Village
  20. Osaka Miyakojima Ward
  21. Osaka Higashinari Ward
  22. Osaka Asahi Ward
  23. Osaka Joto Ward
  24. Osaka Tsurumi Ward
  25. Moriguchi City
  26. Yao City
  27. Daito City
  28. Kadoma City
  29. Higashiosaka City
  30. Shimamoto Town
  31. Yamatotakada City
  32. Kashihara City
  33. Heguri Town
  34. Ando Town
  35. Miyake Town
  36. Tawaramoto Town
  37. Oji Town
  38. Koryo Town
  39. Southern Otsu City
  40. Kusatsu City
  41. Moriyama City
  42. Kyoto
  43. Nagaokakyo City
  44. Osaka Nishi Ward
  45. Osaka Ikuno Ward
  46. Osaka Hirano Ward
  47. Neyagawa City
  48. Settsu City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F007501
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
1–15.74 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
36 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
55 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
355 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
8
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →