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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Kizugawa fault zone

木津川断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 6.8

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 6.8. Its source elements span depths of 1–14.79 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow1 kmMid-range7.9 kmDeep14.8 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 6.8

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
4,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
166 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Nabari City
  2. Hino Town
  3. Kasagi Town
  4. Yamazoe Village
  5. Kameyama City
  6. Konan City
  7. Minamiyamashiro Village
  8. Wazuka Town
  9. Koka City
  10. Ryuoh Town
  11. Ujitawara Town
  12. Omihachiman City
Show 48 more places
  1. Suzuka City
  2. Higashiomi City
  3. Iga City
  4. Eastern Tsu City
  5. Ritto City
  6. Eastern Matsusaka City
  7. Kusatsu City
  8. Yasu City
  9. Moriyama City
  10. Kyoto Ukyo Ward
  11. Kyoto Yamashina Ward
  12. Ide Town
  13. Kyoto Nishikyo Ward
  14. Southern Otsu City
  15. Kyoto Shimogyo Ward
  16. Kyoto Minami Ward
  17. Kyoto Fushimi Ward
  18. Uji City
  19. Joyo City
  20. Muko City
  21. Kyotanabe City
  22. Oyamazaki Town
  23. Seika Town
  24. Kumiyama Town
  25. Nagaokakyo City
  26. Kizugawa City
  27. Yawata City
  28. Shimamoto Town
  29. Mie
  30. Ikoma City
  31. Hirakata City
  32. Western Nara City
  33. Katano City
  34. Shiga
  35. Takatsuki City
  36. Sakurai City
  37. Tenri City
  38. Shijonawate City
  39. Kashihara City
  40. Ibaraki City
  41. Yamatokoriyama City
  42. Kyoto
  43. Neyagawa City
  44. Settsu City
  45. Sango Town
  46. Ikaruga Town
  47. Ando Town
  48. Miyake Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F007201
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
1–14.79 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
32 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
50 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
250 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
10
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →