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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Suzuka-seien fault zone

鈴鹿西縁断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.17%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.28%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7. Its source elements span depths of 1–11.32 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.17%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow1 kmMid-range6.2 kmDeep11.3 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.17%Within 50 years0.28%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
18,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Komono Town
  2. Hino Town
  3. Aisho Town
  4. Sekigahara Town
  5. Yokkaichi City
  6. Inabe City
  7. Toin Town
  8. Hikone City
  9. Higashiomi City
  10. Maibara City
  11. Toyosato Town
  12. Kora Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Taga Town
  2. Mie
  3. Kameyama City
  4. Tarui Town
  5. Eastern Tsu City
  6. Kuwana City
  7. Suzuka City
  8. Nagahama City
  9. Koka City
  10. Godo Town
  11. Inazawa City
  12. Yatomi City
  13. Tobishima Village
  14. Kisosaki Town
  15. Kawagoe Town
  16. Shiga
  17. Konan City
  18. Takashima City
  19. Hashima City
  20. Kaizu City
  21. Yoro Town
  22. Nagoya Nakamura Ward
  23. Nagoya Nakagawa Ward
  24. Ichinomiya City
  25. Tsushima City
  26. Aisai City
  27. Kiyosu City
  28. Omihachiman City
  29. Ryuoh Town
  30. Ogaki City
  31. Kakamigahara City
  32. Ginan Town
  33. Kasamatsu Town
  34. Wanouchi Town
  35. Ampachi Town
  36. Aichi
  37. Nagoya Nishi Ward
  38. Nagoya Mizuho Ward
  39. Nagoya Minato Ward
  40. Nagoya Minami Ward
  41. Ama City
  42. Oharu Town
  43. Kanie Town
  44. Gifu City
  45. Ibigawa Town
  46. Ono Town
  47. Kitagata Town
  48. Konan City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F006901
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
POI
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
1–11.32 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
46 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
35 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
358 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
15
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →