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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Suzuka-toen fault zone

鈴鹿東縁断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.07%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.11%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7. Its source elements span depths of 2–17.59 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.07%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range9.8 kmDeep17.6 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.07%Within 50 years0.11%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
6,500 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
3,500 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Komono Town
  2. Sekigahara Town
  3. Inabe City
  4. Aisho Town
  5. Toyosato Town
  6. Kora Town
  7. Taga Town
  8. Yokkaichi City
  9. Kameyama City
  10. Toin Town
  11. Hikone City
  12. Maibara City
Show 48 more places
  1. Hino Town
  2. Tarui Town
  3. Ibigawa Town
  4. Mie
  5. Eastern Tsu City
  6. Nagahama City
  7. Godo Town
  8. Ono Town
  9. Kuwana City
  10. Suzuka City
  11. Koka City
  12. Konan City
  13. Hashima City
  14. Motosu City
  15. Kaizu City
  16. Yoro Town
  17. Konan City
  18. Inazawa City
  19. Tobishima Village
  20. Kisosaki Town
  21. Kawagoe Town
  22. Higashiomi City
  23. Ryuoh Town
  24. Kakamigahara City
  25. Wanouchi Town
  26. Ichinomiya City
  27. Tsushima City
  28. Aisai City
  29. Kiyosu City
  30. Yatomi City
  31. Shiga
  32. Omihachiman City
  33. Ginan Town
  34. Kasamatsu Town
  35. Ampachi Town
  36. Kitagata Town
  37. Aichi
  38. Nagoya Nishi Ward
  39. Ama City
  40. Oharu Town
  41. Kanie Town
  42. Yasu City
  43. Gifu
  44. Gifu City
  45. Ogaki City
  46. Seki City
  47. Mizuho City
  48. Nagoya Nakamura Ward

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F006801
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–17.59 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
48 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
60 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
191.2 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
11
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →