Japan earthquakes, down to the local station
EN
Open interactive map
MenuMore
J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Yoro-Kuwana-Yokkaichi fault zone

養老−桑名−四日市断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.74%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years1.35%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.2. Its source elements span depths of 2–11 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.74%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range6.5 kmDeep11 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.2

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.74%Within 50 years1.35%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
1,400 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
820 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Tarui Town
  2. Sekigahara Town
  3. Inabe City
  4. Toin Town
  5. Komono Town
  6. Aisho Town
  7. Ogaki City
  8. Motosu City
  9. Kaizu City
  10. Yoro Town
  11. Godo Town
  12. Ampachi Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Ono Town
  2. Mie
  3. Yokkaichi City
  4. Kuwana City
  5. Suzuka City
  6. Kameyama City
  7. Kawagoe Town
  8. Hikone City
  9. Nagahama City
  10. Higashiomi City
  11. Maibara City
  12. Toyosato Town
  13. Kora Town
  14. Taga Town
  15. Gifu
  16. Gifu City
  17. Hashima City
  18. Mizuho City
  19. Ginan Town
  20. Kasamatsu Town
  21. Wanouchi Town
  22. Ibigawa Town
  23. Kitagata Town
  24. Nagoya Kita Ward
  25. Nagoya Nishi Ward
  26. Nagoya Nakamura Ward
  27. Nagoya Atsuta Ward
  28. Nagoya Nakagawa Ward
  29. Nagoya Minato Ward
  30. Ichinomiya City
  31. Tsushima City
  32. Tokoname City
  33. Komaki City
  34. Inazawa City
  35. Iwakura City
  36. Aisai City
  37. Kiyosu City
  38. Kitanagoya City
  39. Yatomi City
  40. Ama City
  41. Toyoyama Town
  42. Oharu Town
  43. Kanie Town
  44. Tobishima Village
  45. Agui Town
  46. Eastern Tsu City
  47. Kisosaki Town
  48. Shiga

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F006701
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
2
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–11 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
20.2–38.2 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
30–150 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
203–334 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
18
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →