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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Biwako-seigan fault zone (Southern part)

琵琶湖西岸断層帯南部

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 6.9

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 6.9. Its source elements span depths of 3–13.32 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow3 kmMid-range8.2 kmDeep13.3 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 6.9

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
4,500 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
835 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Ohi Town
  2. Kyoto Kamigyo Ward
  3. Kyoto Nakagyo Ward
  4. Maibara City
  5. Kyoto Higashiyama Ward
  6. Konan City
  7. Obama City
  8. Aisho Town
  9. Toyosato Town
  10. Kyoto Kita Ward
  11. Kyoto Sakyo Ward
  12. Hikone City
Show 48 more places
  1. Ryuoh Town
  2. Mihama Town
  3. Nagahama City
  4. Omihachiman City
  5. Wakasa Town
  6. Takashima City
  7. Higashiomi City
  8. Kyoto Ukyo Ward
  9. Kyoto Yamashina Ward
  10. Kusatsu City
  11. Kyoto Shimogyo Ward
  12. Kyoto Nishikyo Ward
  13. Muko City
  14. Ujitawara Town
  15. Ritto City
  16. Yasu City
  17. Moriyama City
  18. Nagaokakyo City
  19. Southern Otsu City
  20. Kyoto Fushimi Ward
  21. Kameoka City
  22. Kyoto Minami Ward
  23. Uji City
  24. Oyamazaki Town
  25. Joyo City
  26. Nantan City
  27. Shimamoto Town
  28. Fukui
  29. Yawata City
  30. Kyotanabe City
  31. Kumiyama Town
  32. Ide Town
  33. Kyoto
  34. Shiga
  35. Seika Town
  36. Hirakata City
  37. Takatsuki City
  38. Ibaraki City
  39. Katano City
  40. Kizugawa City
  41. Shijonawate City
  42. Osaka Higashiyodogawa Ward
  43. Suita City
  44. Neyagawa City
  45. Settsu City
  46. Osaka Asahi Ward
  47. Moriguchi City
  48. Kadoma City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F006502
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
3–13.32 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
40 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
35 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
200 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
15
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →