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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Nobi fault zone (Main part/Umehara fault zone)

濃尾断層帯主部梅原断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 6.9

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 6.9. Its source elements span depths of 2–20 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range11 kmDeep20 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 6.9

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
14,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
129 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Sakahogi Town
  2. Mitake Town
  3. Oguchi Town
  4. Tomika Town
  5. Kawabe Town
  6. Tajimi City
  7. Mino City
  8. Yaotsu Town
  9. Seto City
  10. Inuyama City
  11. Minokamo City
  12. Toki City
Show 48 more places
  1. Kani City
  2. Owariasahi City
  3. Yamagata City
  4. Hichiso Town
  5. Mizunami City
  6. Tarui Town
  7. Nagoya Chikusa Ward
  8. Nagoya Naka Ward
  9. Nagoya Atsuta Ward
  10. Nisshin City
  11. Fuso Town
  12. Nagoya Higashi Ward
  13. Nagoya Showa Ward
  14. Nagoya Midori Ward
  15. Nagoya Tenpaku Ward
  16. Kakamigahara City
  17. Kasamatsu Town
  18. Ono Town
  19. Kitagata Town
  20. Nagoya Mizuho Ward
  21. Nagoya Minami Ward
  22. Nagoya Moriyama Ward
  23. Mizuho City
  24. Ginan Town
  25. Yoro Town
  26. Wanouchi Town
  27. Ampachi Town
  28. Ibigawa Town
  29. Konan City
  30. Ogaki City
  31. Seki City
  32. Hashima City
  33. Godo Town
  34. Kasugai City
  35. Komaki City
  36. Iwakura City
  37. Kitanagoya City
  38. Toyoyama Town
  39. Motosu City
  40. Nagoya Kita Ward
  41. Nagoya Nishi Ward
  42. Nagoya Nakamura Ward
  43. Nagoya Nakagawa Ward
  44. Ichinomiya City
  45. Tsushima City
  46. Kiyosu City
  47. Ama City
  48. Oharu Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F006004
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–20 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
40 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
90 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
125.3 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
7
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →