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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Nagai-bonchi-seien fault zone

長井盆地西縁断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.1

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years0.02%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years0.04%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.1. Its source elements span depths of 2–14.73 km below the surface. Its 30-year long-term probability is 0.02%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range8.4 kmDeep14.7 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.1

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years0.02%Within 50 years0.04%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
5,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
2,400 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Nagai City
  2. Oguni Town
  3. Shirataka Town
  4. Iide Town
  5. Yamagata City
  6. Yonezawa City
  7. Kaminoyama City
  8. Nanyo City
  9. Asahi Town
  10. Takahata Town
  11. Kawanishi Town
  12. Kitakata City
Show 22 more places
  1. Aizubange Town
  2. Yugawa Village
  3. Sagae City
  4. Tendo City
  5. Yamanobe Town
  6. Nakayama Town
  7. Kahoku Town
  8. Nishikawa Town
  9. Oe Town
  10. Fukushima City
  11. Aizuwakamatsu City
  12. Date City
  13. Kitashiobara Village
  14. Inawashiro Town
  15. Murayama City
  16. Yamagata
  17. Higashine City
  18. Oishida Town
  19. Sekikawa Village
  20. Murakami City
  21. Fukushima
  22. Niigata

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F002201
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–14.73 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
54 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
45 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
186.7 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
15
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →