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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Fukushima-bonchi-seien fault zone

福島盆地西縁断層帯

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.1

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

J-SHIS classifies this as a major active-fault model. It represents the underground area that may rupture along the fault, not one predicted earthquake. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.1. Its source elements span depths of 2–14.73 km below the surface.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow2 kmMid-range8.4 kmDeep14.7 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.1

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
8,000 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
2,200 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Kawamata Town
  2. Shichikashuku Town
  3. Motomiya City
  4. Otama Village
  5. Kaminoyama City
  6. Nagai City
  7. Shirataka Town
  8. Koori Town
  9. Kunimi Town
  10. Sendai Wakabayashi Ward
  11. Shiroishi City
  12. Natori City
Show 48 more places
  1. Tomiya City
  2. Zao Town
  3. Kawasaki Town
  4. Ohira Village
  5. Nanyo City
  6. Takahata Town
  7. Kawanishi Town
  8. Sukagawa City
  9. Kitakata City
  10. Nihonmatsu City
  11. Date City
  12. Bandai Town
  13. Aizubange Town
  14. Yugawa Village
  15. Sendai Aoba Ward
  16. Sendai Taihaku Ward
  17. Sendai Izumi Ward
  18. Tagajo City
  19. Iwanuma City
  20. Ogawara Town
  21. Murata Town
  22. Shibata Town
  23. Marumori Town
  24. Watari Town
  25. Shichigahama Town
  26. Rifu Town
  27. Eastern Taiwa Town
  28. Osato Town
  29. Yamagata City
  30. Yonezawa City
  31. Yamanobe Town
  32. Nakayama Town
  33. Fukushima City
  34. Aizuwakamatsu City
  35. Kitashiobara Village
  36. Inawashiro Town
  37. Shinchi Town
  38. Sendai Miyagino Ward
  39. Kakuda City
  40. Sagae City
  41. Murayama City
  42. Tendo City
  43. Yamamoto Town
  44. Higashine City
  45. Kahoku Town
  46. Koriyama City
  47. Miyagi
  48. Yamagata

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
F002101
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
1
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
2–14.73 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Element length
60 km
The length of individual source elements, not necessarily the total length of a fault zone.
Element width
18 km
The width of the inclined source elements below ground.
Dip angle
45 °
The element’s tilt from horizontal: 0° is horizontal and 90° is vertical.
Strike
212.6 °
The compass direction in which an element extends, measured clockwise from north.
Display grid cells
20
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →