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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Large earthquakes along the Nankai Trough

南海トラフ沿いで発生する大地震

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 8.2–9.1

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years74.3%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years93.8%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

This model covers the broad plate boundary running from Suruga Bay along the Pacific side of central and western Japan towards Hyūga-nada. Here the Philippine Sea Plate descends beneath the plate on the archipelago side. Different sections may rupture separately or together, so this is not one predetermined earthquake.

Read the plain-language Nankai guide →

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow0 kmMid-range19.8 kmDeep39.6 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 8.2–9.1

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years74.3%Within 50 years93.8%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
88.2 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
74.1 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Warabi City
  2. Toda City
  3. Yashio City
  4. Satte City
  5. Yoshikawa City
  6. Kawajima Town
  7. Sumida City
  8. Adachi City
  9. Niijima Village
  10. Kouzushima Village
  11. Miyake Village
  12. Yokohama Seya Ward
Show 48 more places
  1. Yokohama Izumi Ward
  2. Kawasaki Kawasaki Ward
  3. Kawasaki Saiwai Ward
  4. Sagamihara Minami Ward
  5. Fujisawa City
  6. Odawara City
  7. Chigasaki City
  8. Atsugi City
  9. Yamato City
  10. Isehara City
  11. Ebina City
  12. Zama City
  13. Minamiashigara City
  14. Ayase City
  15. Samukawa Town
  16. Oiso Town
  17. Nakai Town
  18. Oi Town
  19. Matsuda Town
  20. Yamakita Town
  21. Kaisei Town
  22. Hakone Town
  23. Manazuru Town
  24. Yugawara Town
  25. Fukui City
  26. Tsuruga City
  27. Sabae City
  28. Yamanashi
  29. Kofu City
  30. Fujiyoshida City
  31. Tsuru City
  32. Yamanashi City
  33. Nirasaki City
  34. Minamialps City
  35. Hokuto City
  36. Kai City
  37. Fuefuki City
  38. Chuo City
  39. Ichikawamisato Town
  40. Hayakawa Town
  41. Minobu Town
  42. Fujikawa Town
  43. Showa Town
  44. Nishikatsura Town
  45. Oshino Village
  46. Yamanakako Village
  47. Narusawa Village
  48. Fujikawaguchiko Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
ANNKI
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
539,714
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
0–39.59 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Rupture patterns
177
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
1,441
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →