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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Huge interplate earthquakes in Miyagi-ken-toho-Oki

宮城県沖のプレート間巨大地震

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.9–8.6

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years24.1%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years36.8%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

This is a model of a broad plate boundary where one plate descends beneath another. Different sections may rupture in different combinations. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.9–8.6. Its source elements span depths of 0–61.39 km below the surface. It considers 20 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 24.1%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow0 kmMid-range30.7 kmDeep61.4 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.9–8.6

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years24.1%Within 50 years36.8%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
109 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Ofunato City
  2. Kitakami City
  3. Ichinoseki City
  4. Rikuzentakata City
  5. Kamaishi City
  6. Oshu City
  7. Yahaba Town
  8. Kanegasaki Town
  9. Hiraizumi Town
  10. Sumita Town
  11. Sendai Wakabayashi Ward
  12. Ishinomaki City
Show 48 more places
  1. Kesennuma City
  2. Natori City
  3. Kakuda City
  4. Tagajo City
  5. Iwanuma City
  6. Tome City
  7. Eastern Kurihara City
  8. Higashimatsushima City
  9. Eastern Osaki City
  10. Ogawara Town
  11. Shibata Town
  12. Marumori Town
  13. Watari Town
  14. Yamamoto Town
  15. Kami Town
  16. Wakuya Town
  17. Misato Town
  18. Onagawa Town
  19. Minamisanriku Town
  20. Fukushima City
  21. Koriyama City
  22. Soma City
  23. Date City
  24. Koori Town
  25. Kunimi Town
  26. Shinchi Town
  27. Miyako City
  28. Hanamaki City
  29. Tono City
  30. Shiwa Town
  31. Otsuchi Town
  32. Yamada Town
  33. Miyagi
  34. Sendai Aoba Ward
  35. Sendai Miyagino Ward
  36. Sendai Taihaku Ward
  37. Sendai Izumi Ward
  38. Shiogama City
  39. Tomiya City
  40. Murata Town
  41. Matsushima Town
  42. Shichigahama Town
  43. Rifu Town
  44. Eastern Taiwa Town
  45. Osato Town
  46. Ohira Village
  47. Shikama Town
  48. Nihonmatsu City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
AMYGI
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
POI
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
11,542
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
0–61.39 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Rupture patterns
20
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
393
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →