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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Mega earthquakes along the Japan Trench (Great East Japan Earthquake 2011 type)

日本海溝沿いの超巨大地震（東北地方太平洋沖型）

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 8.6–9

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years—

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

This is a model of a broad plate boundary where one plate descends beneath another. Different sections may rupture in different combinations. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 8.6–9. Its source elements span depths of 0–61.95 km below the surface. It considers 10 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow0 kmMid-range31 kmDeep62 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 8.6–9

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years—Within 50 years—

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
575 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
8.8 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Asakawa Town
  2. Sumita Town
  3. Iwaizumi Town
  4. Tanohata Village
  5. Fudai Village
  6. Noda Village
  7. Minamisanriku Town
  8. Nakajima Village
  9. Yabuki Town
  10. Tanagura Town
  11. Hanawa Town
  12. Ishikawa Town
Show 48 more places
  1. Tamakawa Village
  2. Mito City
  3. Ishioka City
  4. Kasama City
  5. Hitachinaka City
  6. Kashima City
  7. Itako City
  8. Hitachiomiya City
  9. Inashiki City
  10. Kasumigaura City
  11. Sakuragawa City
  12. Kamisu City
  13. Namegata City
  14. Hokota City
  15. Omitama City
  16. Ibaraki Town
  17. Oarai Town
  18. Shirosato Town
  19. Miho Village
  20. Ami Town
  21. Utsunomiya City
  22. Kanuma City
  23. Moka City
  24. Nasukarasuyama City
  25. Shimotsuke City
  26. Kaminokawa Town
  27. Mashiko Town
  28. Motegi Town
  29. Ichikai Town
  30. Haga Town
  31. Mibu Town
  32. Takanezawa Town
  33. Nakagawa Town
  34. Chiba Midori Ward
  35. Choshi City
  36. Mobara City
  37. Narita City
  38. Sakura City
  39. Togane City
  40. Asahi City
  41. Yachimata City
  42. Tomisato City
  43. Sosa City
  44. Katori City
  45. Sammu City
  46. Oamishirasato City
  47. Shisui Town
  48. Kozaki Town

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
AJTHK
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
25,115
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
0–61.95 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Rupture patterns
10
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
1,147
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →