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J-SHIS EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODEL

Huge interplate earthquakes in Aomori-ken-toho-Oki and Northern Iwate-ken-Oki

青森県東方沖及び岩手県沖北部のプレート間巨大地震

What this earthquake source model represents and how to read its data.

Reference model · not a forecast
Modelled magnitudeMw 7.9–8.8

The range of earthquake sizes represented by the whole model.

Chance within 30 years19%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

Chance within 50 years63.6%

The long-term chance that an earthquake represented by this model occurs within that period.

This model in plain language

This is a model of a broad plate boundary where one plate descends beneath another. Different sections may rupture in different combinations. The model covers an overall magnitude of Mw 7.9–8.8. Its source elements span depths of 0–61.63 km below the surface. It considers 51 rupture patterns; this is not the number of expected earthquakes. Its 30-year long-term probability is 19%, not a prediction of a date.

Japan terrain and the source model in 3D

Use the terrain map and city labels to locate the approximate source area, then switch below ground to inspect its generalised extent and depth. It does not reproduce the original source elements or show future epicentres or rupture progression.

Ctrl-drag to tilt · city names remain visible on the map

Colour shows generalised depthShallow0 kmMid-range30.8 kmDeep61.6 km

The 3D terrain gives geographic and city context. The coloured surfaces are coarse regular display cells projected from the underground source area—not the original J-SHIS geometry. They do not show future epicentres or shaking intensity.

How to read the model data

Modelled magnitudeMw 7.9–8.8

Magnitude describes the overall size of the modelled earthquake, not the Shindo felt in a particular place. The same magnitude can produce different shaking depending on distance, depth and ground conditions. A range shows both model limits.

Occurrence probability
Within 30 years19%Within 50 years63.6%

Probabilities are long-term values in the Y2020 model. They do not predict an earthquake on a particular day, in a particular year or at one exact location. Some models do not provide a value.

Average recurrence interval
97 years
A long-term average derived from the activity assessment. It is not a timetable or a countdown to the next event.
Time since latest modelled activity
51.6 years
How much time the model treats as having passed since the latest activity. It is uncertain and is not the time remaining until another earthquake.

Do not subtract the elapsed time from the average interval to calculate a countdown to the next earthquake.

Places where J-SHIS considers this model

In J-SHIS calculations, this model is among the leading earthquake sources for these places. It does not mean the earthquake will start inside their boundaries or that every place would shake in the same way.

  1. Shikabe Town
  2. Hachinohe City
  3. Misawa City
  4. Mutsu City
  5. Rokunohe Town
  6. Yokohama Town
  7. Tohoku Town
  8. Rokkasho Village
  9. Oirase Town
  10. Oma Town
  11. Higashidori Village
  12. Kazamaura Village
Show 48 more places
  1. Hashikami Town
  2. Miyako City
  3. Hanamaki City
  4. Kuji City
  5. Tono City
  6. Hachimantai City
  7. Shiwa Town
  8. Otsuchi Town
  9. Yamada Town
  10. Iwaizumi Town
  11. Tanohata Village
  12. Fudai Village
  13. Noda Village
  14. Hirono Town
  15. Hakodate City
  16. Hokuto City
  17. Nanae Town
  18. Mukawa Town
  19. Shinhidaka Town
  20. Aomori
  21. Aomori City
  22. Hiranai Town
  23. Noheji Town
  24. Shichinohe Town
  25. Sannohe Town
  26. Gonohe Town
  27. Nambu Town
  28. Shingo Village
  29. Iwate
  30. Morioka City
  31. Ofunato City
  32. Kitakami City
  33. Rikuzentakata City
  34. Kamaishi City
  35. Ninohe City
  36. Oshu City
  37. Takizawa City
  38. Iwate Town
  39. Yahaba Town
  40. Kanegasaki Town
  41. Hiraizumi Town
  42. Karumai Town
  43. Kunohe Village
  44. Ichinohe Town
  45. Kesennuma City
  46. Kosaka Town
  47. Tomakomai City
  48. Noboribetsu City

Technical model data

J-SHIS identifiers and calculation parameters. You do not need them for an everyday reading of this page.

Model version
Y2020
The edition of J-SHIS data used on this page.
Probability case
MAX
MAX is the J-SHIS calculation case used on this page. It does not mean a certain ‘worst case’ event.
J-SHIS code
AAEIN
The identifier used for this model inside J-SHIS.
Estimation method code
BPT
An abbreviation for the statistical process used to calculate probability. It is not a danger grade.
Source elements
33,321
Source elements are the pieces J-SHIS uses to build the source shape. A larger count means a more detailed or complex model; it is not a hazard score, a fault count or the number of expected earthquakes.
Depth
0–61.63 km
The modelled depth range below the ground surface.
Rupture patterns
51
Alternative rupture arrangements or sequences considered by the model.
Display grid cells
535
Regular aggregated grid cells used to depict the source area. This is not the number of source records or original shapes.

Source and limitations

Source: J-SHIS, operated by Japan’s National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). JISHINDESU organises the Y2020 maximum-case data for presentation. This page is not an earthquake prediction, building-safety assessment or evacuation notice. Use current JMA and local-authority information for safety decisions.

In accordance with the J-SHIS terms, we publish only model-level summaries and coarse display geometry that cannot reproduce the original vertex sequences. This is not a redistributed copy of the source dataset.

Data retrieved: 05/09/2026

Open the source data in J-SHIS ↗J-SHIS terms of use ↗Explore local earthquake history →